Ukraine Analytica 2(37)

TRANSFORMING THE WESTPHALIAN DILEMMA: GERMAN MEDIATION OF THE TRANSNISTRIAN CONFLICT AND LESSONS FOR UKRAINE

As one of the largest EU member-states, Germany has played a pivotal, though often disputed, role in shaping the diplomatic prospects of the post-Soviet frozen conflicts landscape. This article analyses the evolution of German policy towards the Transnistrian conflict, including the broader negotiation framework of ‘5+2’. Special attention is also given to the Meseberg Process (2010), Berlin Protocol (2016), and ‘Berlin Plus’ package for identifying key lessons learned from Berlin’s mediation efforts, with its possible scaling up to the context of the Russian- Ukrainian war.

«Russian political leverage is best illustrated by the ill-fated Kozak Memorandum, which was intended to be imposed in 2003


Marianna Prysiazhniuk is a Ukrainian and Romanian researcher and journalist. She is pursuing her PhD degree at the University of Bucharest, where she explores the topic of strategic narratives in Russian foreign policy in Eastern Europe. Ms Prysiazhniuk also works as a political analyst at Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, is a FIMI analyst at the international cybersecurity company ISSP, contributing to the European project ATHENA, as well as a journalist, focusing on international dynamics in the regions of Ukraine, Romania, and the Republic of Moldova, and hybrid risks in these areas.


  1. Images are for demo purposes only and are properties of their respective owners. Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural Cooperation” (Ukraine), Centre of International Studies (Ukraine),  with the financial support of the Representation of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung in Ukraine, International Renaissance Foundation and RAND Corporation, and the U.S. Department of State

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