PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF UKRAINIAN CRISIS: SCENARIOS FOR MID-LONG TERM EVOLUTION

Prospective analysis is an important component of strategic long-term planning. There is a range of methodologies, techniques and models applied in the field with uneven results. The international experience underlines the difficulty of making predictions in a highly unstable period, when we can mark off the end of the holiday offered by the post-Cold war period and the renewal of the fight for a better position caused by the global players’ new economic and military capacities and their sheer multiplicity. The big challenge is how to elaborate prospective scenarios (and not predictions) in the middle of an evolving crisis, with the „depth” of these predictions to cover 6 months-1 year, 3-5 years, 10-15 years.

Experts tried to meet this challenge in a project related to prospective studies for the Ukrainian Crisis. The project was funded by the German Marshall Fund in 2014[1]. To make an assessment, an original methodology was used. It is described below and establishes the strong signals approach (continuity scenarios), weak signals approach (events that become relevant in the mid to long term, with a significant impact on the evolution of such a scenario), and black swan events approach (law probability events with high impact, if the scenario develops that way).

Prospective analysis is an important component of strategic long-term planning. There is a range of methodologies, techniques and models applied in the field with uneven results. The international experience underlines the difficulty of making predictions in a highly unstable period, when we can mark off the end of the holiday offered by the post-Cold war period and the renewal of the fight for a better position caused by the global players’ new economic and military capacities and their sheer multiplicity. The big challenge is how to elaborate prospective scenarios (and not predictions) in the middle of an evolving crisis, with the „depth” of these predictions to cover 6 months-1 year, 3-5 years, 10-15 years. Experts tried to meet this challenge in a project related to prospective studies for the Ukrainian Crisis. The project was funded by the German Marshall Fund in 2014[1]. To make an assessment, an original methodology was used. It is described below and establishes the strong signals approach (continuity scenarios), weak signals approach (events that become relevant in the mid to long term, with a significant impact on the evolution of such a scenario), and black swan events approach (law probability events with high impact, if the scenario develops that way).
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Iulian Chifu

Prof. Dr. Iulian Chifu, is a President of the Center for Conflict Prevention & Early Warning, Romania. Since 2005, he is Associate Professor, National Defense College, Bucharest (Romania), National Defense University „Carol I” and Since 2000, – Associate Professor specialized in Conflict Analysis, Decision making in crisis and the Post-soviet Space with the Department of International Relations, National University for Political and Administrative Studies, Bucharest. In October 2010 – December 2014, Dr Chifu served as a Presidential Counselor, chief of Department of Strategic Affairs and International Security, Romanian Presidency


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