NATO’S ENHANCED FORWARD PRESENCE: CHANGING THE ESCALATION DOMINANCE CALCULUS IN THE BALTIC SEA REGION

The article is assessing how NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltic states and Poland has altered the strategic balance in the Baltic Sea region. Before 2016, Russia enjoyed clear escalation dominance there. However, the deployment of multinational, combat-ready NATO forces with the logic that any attack on them would induce a collective NATO response has changed this calculus. Since then, the burden is on Russia, whether the three Baltic states are worthy enough for Moscow to take up a major war against NATO.

The article is assessing how NATO’s Enhanced Forward Presence in the Baltic states and Poland has altered the strategic balance in the Baltic Sea region. Before 2016, Russia enjoyed clear escalation dominance there. However, the deployment of multinational, combat-ready NATO forces with the logic that any attack on them would induce a collective NATO response has changed this calculus. Since then, the burden is on Russia, whether the three Baltic states are worthy enough for Moscow to take up a major war against NATO.
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Andras Racz

András Rácz defended his Ph.D. in Modern History in 2008 at the Eötvös Loránd University in Budapest, Hungary. In 2014-2016, he was a senior research fellow of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs in Helsinki. Since his return to Hungary, he has been an associate professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences of the Pázmány Péter Catholic University and non-resident research fellow of the Estonian Foreign Policy Institute operating in Tallinn. His fields of expertise are the security and defence policy issues of the post-Soviet region, as well as relations of Russia and Central Europe.


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