MINSK AGREEMENTS IMPLEMENTATION: ART OF IMPOSSIBLE

Hanna Shelest, PhD

Editor-in-chief, UA: Ukraine Analytica

Dmytro Shulga

Director of the European Programmes, International Renaissance Foundation

The analysis of the Minsk agreements implementation (a common name for a package of documents adopted in September 2014 and February 2015 aiming to resolve a current crisis in the Eastern region of Ukraine) demonstrates that despite a few steps forward, the systematic violation of certain clauses as well as serious manipulation of the others by the so-called ‘Donetsk People Republic’/ ‘Luhansk People Republic’ (‘DPR’/‘LPR’) combatants and the Russian Federation has been observed and confirmed by the international community. Lifting international sanctions seems the only incentive for Russia to comply with the Minsk agreements. Its current tactic involves partial implementation, which would help to apply for easing sanctions and thus to decrease the cost of its waging war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia preserves the possibility to re-escalate the currently low-intensity-conflict at any convenient moment.



Hanna Shelest, PhD Editor-in-chief, UA: Ukraine Analytica Dmytro Shulga Director of the European Programmes, International Renaissance Foundation The analysis of the Minsk agreements implementation (a common name for a package of documents adopted in September 2014 and February 2015 aiming to resolve a current crisis in the Eastern region of Ukraine) demonstrates that despite a few steps forward, the systematic violation of certain clauses as well as serious manipulation of the others by the so-called ‘Donetsk People Republic’/ ‘Luhansk People Republic’ (‘DPR’/‘LPR’) combatants and the Russian Federation has been observed and confirmed by the international community. Lifting international sanctions seems the only incentive for Russia to comply with the Minsk agreements. Its current tactic involves partial implementation, which would help to apply for easing sanctions and thus to decrease the cost of its waging war against Ukraine. At the same time, Russia preserves the possibility to re-escalate the currently low-intensity-conflict at any convenient moment.
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Hanna Shelest

Dr. Hanna Shelest, Editor-in-chief of UA: Ukraine Analytica, member of the Board at the Foreign Policy Council "Ukrainian Prism" and curator of the Ukrainian Peacebuilding School. Previously H.Shelest served as a Senior Researcher at Odessa branch of the National Institute for Strategic Studies and a Visiting Research Fellow at the NATO Defence College (Italy). She has a PhD in International Relations, specializing in conflict resolution and security issues. She has more than 50 academic and more than 100 media articles on conflicts and security. H.Shelest is a Rotary Peace Fellow (2010), John Smith Fellow (2012) and Marshall Memorial Fellow (2016)


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